The Emerging Civil War in our Western Republic
An analysis of where we are in the process and what comes next and the horror afterward
Warning: This article talks about political violence and the motivations for it on either side of the conflict. Nothing written in the article is an endorsement or an advocacy, but rather a warning against such a progression of thoughts and actions in this type of political environment. It was written to raise the readers’ awareness of where we are as a nation and others dealing with similar issues that cause such events. This article is an overview of everything being discussed in the media and academia in our current times. If you are easily triggered by such subjects, it is advised that you stop reading here. Otherwise, keep reading.
On September 10, 2025 Charlie Kirk was assassinated at Utah Valley University campus in Orem, Utah while speaking to a large crowd in attendance to his Turning Point USA rally. Mr. Kirk’s political views were considered “right-wing” and his religious views considered “conservative Christian.” The alleged shooter, 22-year-old Tyler James Robinson, was reported to be in a relationship with a transgendered individual. The alleged motive for the murder of Mr. Kirk was for his stance against transgenderism. It can be deduced that these were the first shots fired in our culture war, which may have been a foreshadowing of what is to come in America.
Soon after Kirk’s assassination the internet and social media was abuzz with comments and hashtags of “civil war” and other related terms. The New York Times reported that the term “civil war” was used 129,000 times on the social platform X (formerly known as Twitter) and over 200,000 times the following day as well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/technology/charlie-kirk-shooting-civil-war.html
Also following Kirk’s death, the search engine Google reports that the search for the term “free speech” exploded. The deduction from that skyrocketing interest was that people wanted to understand more about the topic in relation to the Kirk assassination. One of the corner stones of Charlie Kirk’s message was the push back against censorship against conservative voices in the public square, and as he ventured out onto college campuses to have open dialogs with young people.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/monicatorres2/jimmy-kimmel-free-speech-google-charlie-kirk
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. - John F. Kennedy
Why were these two terms used and searched so much on the internet? How are they related?
Freedom of speech is the cornerstone of our republic and the democratic process of the United States of America. It is our First Amendment right to say whatever you wish whether or not people like what you have to say. Charlie Kirk was murdered for speaking against the transgender ideologies emerging in Western societies and its detrimental effects, and along with his conservative political and Christian religious views.
The freedom of speech originates from Judaeo-Christian ethic as well as many of the freedoms that the peoples of the United States enjoy. When our nation was founded it consisted of 90% Christians compared to today its more like 40% depending on whose polling you believe. Demographically and culturally America has become divided by diversity in essence. What once made us unique now causes us our greatest strife.
Most countries are homogeneous. They share a common language, culture, religion and often times racial similarities. America is heterogeneous. People once came to this country shed the parts of their former national identity to become “an American” which is still the ambition of many people across the world. Most Americans think people only want to immigrate to America solely for economic and safety reasons being that we’re a nation of opportunity and laws. Reality is the concept of “the rights of the individual” and the “restraint of government” against those rights are really the core belief of our republic that the world sees as unique. In general, Americans don’t understand that because we have never really faced it until now with all our cultural and political change.
The appeal to pursue the American dream, to become an “Americano” meant that you could become a whole new person. Many immigrants would change their names and assume a literal new identity. Below is a song by Brian Setzer that embodies that post-World War II mentality that once was a part of the immigrant movement to the United States.
Because of identity politics, that is no longer the case. Unlike those early immigrants that came to our country, reinvented themselves and assimilated, nowadays more people enter the United States wishing to keep more and more of their moral, religious, cultural and racial identity. We are no longer “Americans” or “Americano” we are hyphenated Americans. Right or wrong, it is a catalyst that causes division and tribalism in our melting pot of a nation. It is the particular challenge that we face in a heterogeneous society.
Not only that, we’ve become more secular of a nation. The Judaeo-Christian moral ethic no longer dominates the American way of thinking. The United States moved away one nation under one moral law giver. The ancient landmarks of the Judaeo-Christian ethic that once united a nation under one common belief is no longer the case. This is what Charlie Kirk espoused in many of his rallies, interviews and conversations with diverse people.
Nations divide because its people no longer share the same values or have cultural commonality. What unites us as a nation are the core beliefs in our Constitution and our Bill of Rights, which many no longer seem to share. The conflict and political violence starts when people can no longer be civil and tolerate those differences in everyday life. It is a sign of great trouble for a nation when we can no longer have civil discourse over divisive topics. When the free flow of discussion of ideas ends in bloodshed, it means that your society can no longer function. This is being espoused as one of the reasons why Charlie Kirk was assassinated and as the first serious sign of a greater issue for the United States of America.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/on-brink-civil-war-after-35885724
Those who are aware of these facts and perceive the trends queried the internet to see if there were others who shared their perspective. If you understand the principles of our republic and the inherent conflicts from diverging cultural and moral supports and ties, you can only draw one inevitable conclusion which is civil war.
It was not just the assassination of one man that caused this awaking and concern about the realization of where our nation is headed. In a time of crisis, our first inclination is to determine where we are in progression. Are we in the beginning, middle or near the end? To determine that, we need to look to the history of our nation and other nations to draw our conclusions.
Where are we in the slow march toward a civil war?
People will say the new American Civil War has already started which is hyperbolic and unfounded. The most astute observation that has been that we’re in the “Bleeding Kansas” phase of our spiral toward a civil war. If you are unfamiliar with this period of time in our history, the video below will give you about as most of a fair and balanced summary of all the events that took place prior to the first American Civil War and what sparked it.
For those of you who won’t bother to take the time to watch or learn about “Bleeding Kansas” it will suffice to say it was a time great strife, uncertainty and great deal of violence. It was a classic Democrat versus Republican scenario. Two parties of polarized positions warring in an area that would turn the tide to their favor. Also, in order sway the issue over slavery, there were a great number of people moving into the territory in order to sway the votes. During a seven-year period between 50-200 people were murdered depending on whose accounts you choose to believe. There were militias on either side trying to impose their will and retaliating against the other. Then there was the Federal government involvement in the conflict which further divided the issue.
If you have a spoonful of awareness, this does sound familiar to our times. We have deep irreconcilable differences dividing us as a nation. The battle to reshape voting districts is rampant across our country, particularly from Texas to California. We have militant groups (Antifa on the far-left and host of others on the far-right) across our country forming and some already carrying out violence against government officials. In addition, you have President Trump using federal troops to quell the crime and violence in our major cities, particularly Democrat controlled cities where they tend to be the worse. All these things are forming the perfect power keg to ignite a new civil war in the United States. But are we there yet?
Let’s just be honest and admit there are extremists on both sides of the divide. The extremists are the minority. If you talk to most people, you will find the majority is in the middle. The middle just wants to be left alone and to go about their lives and live in peace. The real conflict doesn’t begin until the people in the middle decide that they have to pick a side and fight.
Both sides are provoking the people in the middle to either submit or fight back. If you want to watch an interesting video on what is happening on the far-right side of the divide to get you involved, below is a very intriguing video from a former undercover FBI Agent, Scott Payne, who reveals the motivation and tactics of the extreme right. Click on the link below for an education in the crazy world of the extreme right and white supremacy.
The extreme right “accelerationists” want to speed up the collapse of society, as they see no path or way to reconcile our differences. They “accelerate” the fall by attacking infrastructure through guerilla warfare, attack leftists in their community, burn and destroy their businesses in clandestine tactics. The goal is to cause the militant left to respond to which the government would have to intervene against the dissent. In essence, provoke the left to the point where they are fighting the government, instead of the the militia group. According the interview, most white nationalist groups are now advocating “accelerationism” as their preference and strategy. They are merging their thoughts and tactics especially worldwide with technology and recruiting.
The far-left on the other hand is more now in our news cycle. You don’t have to look too hard to find out what’s happening. Antifa is very much in the news being freshly designated a domestic terror group. You can’t turn on a television or find a news feed on social media not talking about them.
The far-left has a wild mix of perspectives that they’re coming from and the big tech world goes to lengths to cover for these groups. Do a simple Google search and you will see how down-played the militancy of the far-left groups are portrayed. The perception is that they aren’t coordinated or organized and more homegrown than the right. This could not be more far from the truth. Most have socialist ties and are a mix of different anarchists philosophies and totalitarian authoritarianism.
Many of these groups receive funding from foreign governments to stir trouble within our borders and create doubt in our own government. Many wealthy elites tend to fund such organizations as well. You may have heard the name George Soros many times in the press being known for his support of far-left groups and protests in the states.
All in itself is another article or another day but job well done for sure on their part. From the Black Panther Party from the 1960s to Antifa today, the far-left militant groups have better organized public relations, stronger political ties and better funding than those on the far-right of the spectrum. Be not fooled that they exist in equal numbers, but are well hidden and undocumented.
President Trump using federal troops to clean up crime in major cities as well as ICE to deport illegals pushes the authority of federal government within the states. Right or wrong, legal or illegal and yet to be determined, the Trump administration is fueling this growing discontent on the left. Whether or not the administration is justified in their actions, they are inadvertently adding tinder to the fire which may burn out of control with the right spark.
To answer the question of where we are today, we are primed for a “Bleeding Oregon” or “Bleeding Portland” or “Bleeding Chicago” or a host of the other states or cities to take the mantle. We are just waiting for an event that kicks it all off and starting the official civil war. But what event will polarize a nation to the point that neighbor is willing to take up arms against a neighbor? We are going to soon find out unfortunately.
What will it take to get the people in the middle involved in the conflict?
In chess, the pawns go first. If we learned anything of the past few decades, its the lone gunmen that start the violence. The people who have nothing to lose tend to be the first players on the board. Whether they are targeting a group of people or a single person, they are typically the first ones to break with reality and give in to their fears and lack of hope for the future.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
Look at the list in the link above and their motivations. Some of them are personal, some are political and some are people that have just snapped mentally. Of the 152 mass shootings we’ve had since 1982, it is clear that all of them in their minds perceived that they had nothing to lose. That’s 152 individuals committing mass shootings over the last 43 years, with an average of 3.5 per year. That is fewer than what you would think is the average given our current news cycle, but wait until people are really under pressure.
Think what would happen if half of the population of 347+ million people decided they had nothing to lose tomorrow. You’re probably thinking that is not likely, but we’re very close to this today on a national scale. Take our current situation with President Trump using federal and military personnel to enact his will on Oregon, Illinois and other states as an example. As an academic exercise, let’s say President Trump is successful in expelling all the illegal immigrants and bringing crime to heal in those Democrat controlled cities and states.
To the right, a Trump victory will be the restoration of law and order. It would be a restoration of the values of founding fathers. The mass deportation of violent and criminal illegal aliens will be perceived as a necessity for border and national security. It will be perceived as a correction from the Obama and Biden years of shifting the nation further left and more secular.
To the polarized left of the country, this is the greatest threat of our time in America. A Trump victory is already perceived to have a firm grip of authoritarianism. It is surprising the left hasn’t pulled out the “First They Came” poem by Martin Niemöller in their rhetoric since they often refer to President Trump as a new type of Hitler.
Like in the first US Civil War, we will see a federal government versus states rights issue again. This is will be an interesting reversal for the left as they are typically using the federal government to advance their agenda. It just goes to show how people flip on issues depending on what part controls the presidency.
The far-left is already in conflict with the federal government. Just turn on the news and see for yourself. A clear motivator of what it will take to get the moderate left involved would probably some sort of mass-casualties between federal agents and a local populace.
You’re probably thinking that sounds a bit extreme. You would be correct that half of the population wouldn’t immediately go out and start shooting people, but their thinking, motivations and actions would be put on a different trajectory. Those who don’t own guns will start to buy them. If they can’t buy guns legally because of criminal pasts or mental health restrictions, they will start to acquire them illegally or from a friend or family member.
People will start researching and educating themselves in subjects they wouldn’t normally. Typically it starts with basic survival skills and grows from that into more developed means of self-sufficiency. Some may even take up martial arts training. There will be a definitive change in perspective, behavior and approach to life and future living. You could even call this “prepping behavior” because typical “preppers” are already ahead of the curve in this instance. It will be the ultimate conclusion to start to prepare for “something” of a worst case scenario.
People will be susceptible to extreme points of view from the far-left and or the far-right. The language of these groups is designed to get your attention, stoke your worst fears and encourage you seek community within their group for safety or just inclusion. It may not be their immediate choice but they may consider joining one of these groups as a “back-up” plan in their mind. Initially, people will be on the fringes of these groups, investigating and asking questions, getting to know those involved. The goal would be to become a familiar or a potential initiate when the time comes.
The most dangerous group that will emerge during this time will be these lone gunmen types. Those who are trying to make a name for themselves or their movement to become a part of history will be caught easily. The really smart ones who do not desire to seek attention or attempt to explain their motives will be the most difficult to track. Just like the Beltway Snipers of 2002, law enforcement will be baffled to figure out who the shooters are.
No etched bullets. No letters. No particular pattern of victims to allow for determining of potential targets. No evidence to trace back to a particular group, ideology, race or regionalism. These will be the most effective people in inflicting terror and rage in communities. Just like in 2002, it will create a social pressure cooker and cause people to suspect and turn on each other, which is what the extremists want.
The people in the middle will get involved when they can’t drive to the grocery store, to the gas station or movie theater without the threat of violence. The middle gets involved when their children can’t go to school. The middle gets involved when their creature comforts disappear. The middle gets violent when their families and way of life is in danger. When regular every day people decide they need to walk up to their local politician or neighbor of conflicting views to protect their way of life or that of their children and or grand-children, that is really when the bullets will start flying.
This will be the worst time to be any type of government worker from politician to policeman. Regardless of your political position or inclination you will be a target for either side. Once we’ve passed the event horizon of the trigger point, the dominoes will just start for fall.
What will America look like when the federal, state and local governments fall?
It cannot be stressed enough that a new civil war in the United States is the worst case scenario for everyone involved. Everything you know and love about being an American ends. No production, commerce or importing or exporting. You will trade all your freedoms and pleasures that you now enjoy for terror and violence.
It will literally be all the worst parts of the book of Revelation in your every day life. Those who need regular medications or any type of medical products to live will die when the supplies are depleted. Many will starve or be killed in the fight for food supplies. Violence will be an everyday occurrence. No policemen or first responders will be there to help you. There will be no one coming to rescue you from the horror that awaits.
Think of every post apocalyptic movie or television show you’ve ever watched, and imagine that ten times worse. When people’s children are crying from thirst and starvation, people tend to be more vicious and cold. There will be no infrastructure like water, electricity or communications. Survival will be your everyday chore. There will be no more grocery stores or online shopping. Most people will either spend their days searching and hunting for food or hiding from people who are scrounging for resources.
After the fall of the government you will see three types of existence within the former territory of the United States. It will be total anarchy and lawlessness, many small ethno-states in pocket communities spread across the country and Islamic caliphates. Traversing the country will be a nightmare if you have the capability to even attempt to do so. Like the pioneers who traveled west, you will face similar dangers with a modern twist. In the gaps between these communities there will be predators and opportunists ready to rob, rape and murder. Hunger, hopelessness and fear will be your constant companion.
Let’s say you are fortunate to join one of these pocket communities, the odds of your survival might increase marginally but these communities present their own set of problems. There are many variables to consider. You may have relative safety depending on the setup, training and security structure of the community, but it will always be a target for raiders or a larger force.
Everyday survival will still be everyday work. There will be no Monday through Friday work with the weekends off for rest. You will have the advantage of shared resources but people being people will be critical of others pulling their load and or their fare share of the work. Like in every society, there will be three classes of people; rulers, workers and soldiers. Depending on where you are in that hierarchy will determine your level of happiness, health and security. Fatigue and envy will be your constant companions.
Also being in a community, you risk the spreading and contracting communicable diseases. Illnesses that were once an inconvenience will become life threatening. Headaches and the common cold will have no easy over-the-shelf treatment or medicines. Broken bones, cuts and general infections will be critical situations. Healthcare professionals will only be as valuable as farmers and soldiers if they’re trained in field medicine and holistic methodology of healing and treatment.
Depending on the values of your community, you may find yourself in a less than democratic society. In a post civil war world, people will be very sensitive and selective about the laws, religion and social norms of their community. Typically in these types of situations, crime and punishment tends to be more severe and restrictive. Choose your community well as you might find yourself either an outcast or hanging from the end of a noose, or worse.
The most successful of these communities will be the Islamic caliphates without a doubt. Islam is already an operating system with laws and religious facets that make for a more homogeneous group. As a general rule, they are already living under a system of structure of law that dictates every day life. Other than the day to day struggles of survival, nothing will really change for Muslims in the grand scheme of life.
https://www.halaltimes.com/10-most-muslim-states-in-the-us/
But the capitalistic days of casual living will be over for all. No gas stations or convenience stores. No movie theaters. No restaurants or food trucks. No hospitals or drug stores. It will be a great reset if we’re lucky to at minimum colonial or pre-industrialization times in America. Civil wars tend to never end and have generational consequences.
The best case scenario would be if the individual states can manage to secure control but there will be gaps in their authority regionally. If the United States were to break apart, the odds of a total restructuring a second time would be statistically unlikely. Smarter governments would attempt to move to a pre-United States “Articles of Confederation” type existence and cooperation. But the United States as a world super power with military influence would be at an end, and that is exactly what our enemies want.
How do we as citizens change the direction to avoid a civil war?
In order to lower the temperature of our political climate we need to do several things. Initially, we need to end the charged rhetoric and hyperbolic language online. The social media algorithms fuel the online rage.
The greatest catalyst to thwarting a civil war would be returning prosperity back to the middle class. People who have something lose are less likely to gamble away what they’ve earned in conflict. If our leaders really want to turn the tide, they need to help make living affordable again.
As individuals, we need to learn civil discourse again. If you take the time to really talk to people, instead of at people, you will find there is more that unites us as human beings than divides us. Extremists will never come to the table but those in the middle who want to live in peace will always find common ground on which to dialog.
The media holds a great deal of responsibility in dialing back the partisan politics in our news cycle. But, as you well know, that doesn’t sell in business where clickbait and divisive reigns. Our media has become propaganda for either side of the political divide. Let’s makes journalism impartial again.
At election time, we need to consider more moderate candidates. It is the polarizing figures that keep pulling our nation from extreme to extreme from left to right and back again. We need to make politics boring again. The power and influence of the presidency needs to be reduced, but neither party wants that. It is through the executive branch either party finds the power to bypass the will of the American people through the powers of “executive orders” for that four to eight year period.
There are many other things we can do but the main point here is it starts with us. We the people have to remember what unites us as a people. It’s not a monarch or a religion but rather a piece of paper with ideals written upon it and a set of dispassionate rights and laws bestowed to all by a Divine Moral Law Giver that are to be equally applied to all under our flag. If we can’t all agree on the ideals on those pieces of paper, then our great nation is truly lost. Choose your side.
Is Civil War just an American issue?
Unfortunately, it is not. The United Kingdom is currently facing a similar crisis. The cultural shift in the UK with their mass immigration issue and the proposed Digital ID program has split their nation in two. Keep your eyes on the UK because so goes Europe, so goes the United States. Below is a great video if you want to dive deep into all the facets of the UK Civil War brewing.
In conclusion
Unfortunately, it has been our history that we’ve killed the people who have tried to unite people peacefully under a common cause. From Martin Luther King, John F. Kennedy, Malcolm X and now Charlie Kirk, the murder of peace makers is too often our reality. Despite all his critics, Charlie Kirk did genuinely want to talk to people in civil discourse. Whether or not he agreed with your views, he did listen, ask questions and engage with the people who would talk to him. In essence, he was an ambassadorial olive branch for the conservative side of American politics, and he was killed for it.
9 Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God. 10 Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. 11 “Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me. 12 Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven, for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you. - Matthew 5:9-11
His death was a sign to many people that we’ve reach a point where everyday Americans cannot talk to each other. In that moment, people began to fear that it was a sign of something worse. As a nation, we’re at a point where our words can get us killed, whereas a few years ago, would have only gotten your employment terminated. How much harder is it for us to look at our neighbor and find something in common than something that will compel us to take their lives? The latter seems to be all the more difficult.
Though the odds of our next civil war being a full military conflict are not likely, we will not escape the death and violence as often found in these events. None of our military leaders seem to have moral soil or fortitude to emerge as the next Robert E. Lee or a Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson. Until the President of the United States gives a direct order that our military leaders do not agree with that violates some law (which in itself is sketchy) there are none known to us who have the spine to take a portion of our military to turn against our own government. By the time a general gets his or her first star, they are basically politicians.
The consequences of our first civil war still haunt us today from 160+ years ago. Today, we’re still battling over flags and statues. The sad part is freedom was won and our nation was restored, but we are still fighting battles over conflicts long past. Imagine what will we would still be fighting over 160+ years from now if a new civil war were to emerge. But as usual, I could be wrong about all of it. It is just my perspective from the bottom end.